One has to start somewhere, but this attempt to lockdown rare earth minerals for the US and the West, is more leverage than practical, at this point. This whole bit of discovery, mining, and refining, even without regulations (and that doesn’t happen), takes a very long time to bring to fruition.
Projects in countries with streamlined mining regimes move from discovery to production in under 10 years, while highly scrutinized projects in developed democracies can exceed 25-30 years or fail to proceed at all.
Back-of-envelope takeaway:
• For a new, stand-alone rare earth deposit meant to supply electronics (i.e., with integrated separation/ refining outside China), a working planning assumption is:
• 5-10 years: exploration, resource definition, feasibility studies, and initial permitting.
• 7-10+ years: full regulatory approvals, land and community agreements, and financing.
• 3-7 years: mine, concentrator, and refinery construction plus commissioning and ramp-up.
• Aggregated, this places a realistic “discovery to meaningful refined output” window at roughly 15-25 years in most OECD-style environments, with faster outliers in highly supportive regimes and significantly slower outliers where permitting is contentious.
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Justin Nerdrum
U.S.-Saudi rare-earth JV signals the end of China’s critical-mineral monopoly. DoW provides full financing. Saudis get 51% control. The West just rewrote resource diplomacy.
MP Materials, DoW, and Maaden formalize the binding agreement during MBS’s visit to Washington. U.S. government backs 49% equity with non-recourse financing. Saudi Arabia controls the majority stake. When China holds 80-90% of rare earth refining, strategic compromises become survival tactics.
Allied dependency beats adversarial dominance.
The equity structure tells the story. DoW finances the entire U.S. portion through MP Materials. Zero financial risk for the operator. Technical expertise flows from Mountain Pass to Riyadh. Saudis leverage energy costs and geography. Both light and heavy rare earths – neodymium to dysprosium – are processed outside China’s reach.
Three geopolitical shifts crystallize.
𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀. Traditional energy powers become critical mineral hubs. Saudi’s untapped deposits meet U.S. defense requirements. Fighter jets, missiles, EV motors all need these oxides. Markets don’t secure supply chains. Governments do.
𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 over 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽. U.S. accepts minority position for strategic access. DoW oversight ensures alignment with defense priorities. End-to-end magnet production discussions are underway. When adversaries control processing, perfect sovereignty becomes a dangerous fantasy.
𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. A binding agreement on the same day as the state visit. The construction timeline is aggressive. No decade-long environmental reviews. China’s export curbs accelerate Western urgency. Russia’s uranium ban (2024) proved supply chains need immediate diversification.
MP shares surge 10% on announcement. Capital-light expansion for the operator. Global footprint without balance sheet risk.
China spent 40 years cornering the rare-earth market while we debated free trade. Now we’re trading equity for access, control for speed, sovereignty for security.
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